[MLB Analysis] July 3rd 08:07 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Game Prediction and Preview
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◈Toronto
José Berríos (7 wins, 6 losses, 3.38 ERA) is aiming for his 8th win of the season. Berríos achieved a victory with a stellar performance, allowing 2 hits and 2 runs over seven innings in a home game against the Yankees on the 28th. This indicates that he has somewhat overcome his struggles in June. In an away game against Houston on April 3rd, he pitched six innings while allowing one run, showing that current Berríos can be expected to perform well at home. The Toronto lineup, which avoided a shutout with Ernie Clement's solo home run in the bottom of the 9th inning against Hader after being stymied by Brown's pitching in the previous game, must see if their hitting can bounce back. Missing a bases-loaded opportunity with one out in the bottom of the 8th inning was critically damaging. The bullpen, which allowed two runs in 2.1 innings, was a managerial misstep when bringing in Zach Pop in a one-run situation.
◈Houston
Spencer Arrighetti (4 wins, 6 losses, 5.68 ERA) is challenging for his 5th win of the season. Arrighetti secured a victory with 3 hits and no runs over seven innings in a home game against Colorado on the 27th, proving his worth in a proper rotation. However, with a 1-4 record and 6.34 ERA on the road, he is significantly poor in away games; thus, expectations should be tempered. The Houston lineup attacked Yennier Cano and Zach Pop with two home runs, tallying 3 runs in the previous game, showing evident fatigue from travel. This game is expected to show better performance than the previous game. The bullpen, which allowed one run in three innings, was fortunate as Bryan Abreu did not allow a tie in the bottom of the 8th inning.
◈Comment
The fatigue of Houston’s lineup was evident in the previous game. Whether they can rebound in this game is key, though a dramatic rebound seems unlikely. With Berríos expected to deliver at least a quality start in this home game, much depends on how well Arrighetti holds up. Arrighetti, following Brown, has a pitching style that's relatively easy to target, and his performance in away games this year has not been good. However, Toronto's bullpen is unpredictable and can collapse at any time, which will ultimately be decisive. Houston Astros’ superior late-game performance brings them closer to victory.
◈Recommended Betting
[[Win/Loss]]: Houston Win
[[Handicap]]: +1.5 Houston Win
[[U/O]]: Over 8.5 ▲