June 7th Gibraltar Wales International Football Analysis Sports Analysis
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❶ Key Analysis
⦁ Gibraltar (FIFA Ranking 203rd / LLLLL)
They have shown relatively decent defensive ability against mid- to lower-tier European teams. However, their offense is significantly weak, struggling to maintain possession. In their last match against Scotland, they managed less than 25% possession. Against Wales, it would be best to expect only their improved defensive performance since the Euro qualifiers.
- Absentees: Collen(GK / A-level), Moelhi(DF / A-level), Jolly(DF / A-level), Wiseman(DF / A-level), Coombs(FW / B-level), Stacey(FW / A-level), Hernandez(MF / A-level) ➤ Total squad strength reduced by -13%
● Wales (FIFA Ranking 29th / DWWDD)
Wales will dominate the game. They typically prioritize defense but failing to maintain possession against Gibraltar is unacceptable. Still, their scoring efficiency remains weak, as seen in the match against Poland where multiple scoring opportunities were thwarted by the goalkeeper. Since Bale's departure, finding a reliable striker has been challenging.
- Absentees: Hennessy(GK / A-level), Ramsey(CM / A-level), Wilson(MF / B-level) ➤ Total squad strength reduced by -13%
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected Goals (xG): 0.36 goals vs 1.56 goals
○ Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Probability: 50%
○ Combined Expected Goals: 3.00 goals
○ Previous Matches: 1 match, 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss (favoring Wales)
○ Over/Under in Previous Encounters: Over (100%) (3.5 standard)
○ Both Teams Scored in Previous Matches (BTTS): 0%
➍ Match Flow & Recommended Bets
Wales is expected to secure a win. Gibraltar's severe lack of offensive potential is clear. While they managed to limit Scotland to fewer than two goals, Wales also lacks decisive offensive talent after Bale's departure.
➎ Summary in Three Lines
[Overall Outcome] Wales Win (Recommended)
[Handicap / +3.0] Draw (Not Recommended)
[Over/Under 4.5] Under (Recommended)