June 7 World Cup Qualifier: Palestine vs. Lebanon International Soccer Analysis, Sports Analysis
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❶ Key Analysis
● Palestine (FIFA Ranking 97th / D-W-W-W-W)
Due to the war in Palestine, they are playing their home games in Kuwait. Even in Kuwait, they narrowly lost to Australia 0-1, showing a solid form. They only need a draw to advance to the third round of the qualifiers. Therefore, there's a high possibility that Palestine will deploy a strategy focused on drawing the game. Except against teams like Bangladesh or Hong Kong, Palestine has seldom shown prominent scoring ability.
- Absent players: Siyam (MF/A-level), Yamin (MF/B-level), Kantiayana (MF/A-level), Maraba (MF/A-level), Ali (GK/B-level), Mahajina (DF/A-level) ➤ Total strength -13%
● Lebanon (FIFA Ranking 115th / L-D-L-L-L)
Lebanon is highly likely to dominate the game. However, this domination might be just a "stat boast." In the away game against Bangladesh, they dominated but only managed a 1-1 draw. Especially in three matches against Palestine, they scored only one goal, with all three matches ending in a draw. Lebanon must win to have even a slim chance, which is a big disadvantage for them.
- Absent players: Zein (DF/B-level), Hussein Zein (DF/B-level), Melki (DF/B-level), Felix (MF/B-level), Saad (FW/A-level), Elhelwe (FW/A-level), Kdouh (FW/A-level) ➤ Total strength -14%
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 2.13 goals vs. 1.38 goals
○ Both teams to score possibility (BTTS): 35%
○ Combined expected goals: 2.00 goals
○ Previous head-to-head record: 3 matches, 0 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses (Very close matches)
○ Under/Over in previous matches: Under (100%)
○ Both teams scored in previous matches (BTTS): 33%
➍ Game Pattern & Recommended Betting
An Under (2.5) and a draw are expected. Palestine will thoroughly defend. The problem is that Lebanon hasn't shown the ability to break through such defenses. Since Palestine only needs a draw to advance, they are likely to adopt a strategy to draw, which Lebanon might get caught up in.
➎ Three-Line Summary
[Win/Draw/Loss] Draw (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Lebanon Win (Not Recommended)
[Under/Over / 2.5] Under (Recommended)