June 7 World Cup Qualifiers Jordan Tajikistan Overseas Soccer Analysis Sports Analysis
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❶ Key Analysis
● Jordan (FIFA Ranking 79th / W-W-L-W-W)
Jordan generally struggles against Tajikistan. Though they won in the Asian Cup quarterfinals, Tajikistan had actually dominated the gameplay. Tajikistan's defense and contesting abilities are particularly strong, often causing Jordan, who prefers counter-attacks, significant trouble. Despite Tajikistan's offensive play, Jordan has not managed to score multiple goals in matches except against Pakistan.
- Absentees: Yassen (DF / A-level), Samir (MF / A-level), Dardour (FW / A-level) ➤ Total team strength -13%
● Tajikistan (FIFA Ranking 99th / W-D-L-L-D)
If they do not win, they will be eliminated from the second round of qualifiers. The problem is their poor offensive performance, as seen in the Asian Cup. While they have strengths in physical contests and solid defense lines against strong teams, their goal-scoring ability is a chronic weakness. Apart from a 2-1 victory against Lebanon, they have not scored multiple goals in recent matches.
- Absentees: Asrorov (DF / B-level), Tursunov (MF / A-level), Rumahov (MF / A-level), Zarilov (FW / A-level) ➤ Total team strength -14%
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.77 goals vs 1.93 goals
○ Probability of both teams scoring (BTTS): 50%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00 goals
○ Head-to-head record: 6 matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (Jordan's advantage)
○ Over/Under in previous matches: Under (67%)
○ Both teams scoring in previous matches (BTTS): 33%
➍ Game Outlook & Recommended Bets
Expecting an Under (2.5) scenario and a draw. Both teams are likely to find each other very challenging. Tajikistan has considerable physical and defensive solidity when they drop back, but they also have a severe finishing problem, and Jordan is fundamentally a defensive team.
➎ 3-line Summary
[Regular Win/Draw/Loss] Draw (recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Tajikistan win (not recommended)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Under (recommended)