August 24-25 EPL 7 Matches

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8th-24-25 EPL 7 matches

● Brighton (1st in the league / W5)
Brighton decisively defeated Everton 3-0, showcasing a rather aggressive style of play. Although the opponent had a player sent off, the score was already 2-0 before that. Therefore, the red card only served to seal the game rather than being the reason for winning.
Brighton tends to thrive when there is ample space for the opponent. Manchester United, in contrast, tends to apply heavy pressure, leaving significant spaces. The new coach actively encourages players to seek out space without being confined to specific positions. While their defensive stability may be generally lacking, the attacking players contribute significantly in defensive situations, executing a collective strategy well in 5-3-2 formations.

- Missing players: Verbruggen (GK / C-grade), Ferguson (FW / A-grade), Estupinán (DF / A-grade), Enciso (LW / B-grade), March (RW / A-grade), Lamptey (DF / A-grade), Mwepu (RW / A-grade)

● Manchester United (5th in England 1st division / LWLWL)
Manchester United was quite weak against Brighton. This is partly because United has a chronic weakness due to the spaces conceded in midfield under pressure. In the last match, they allowed Fulham to have 9 shots, indicating a defensive vulnerability.
Mount failed to contribute offensively. However, based on his work rate, he performed the role of pressing well, and as soon as he went off, the pressure on the opponent diminished significantly. It was notable that defenders like De Ligt, Mazraoui, and Onana, all from Ajax, appeared to be in good form, but defensively, there were still many shortcomings.

- Missing players: Sancho (RW / B-grade), Varane (CB / A-grade), Shaw (LB / B-grade), Hojlund (FW / A-grade), Malacia (LB / C-grade), Lindelöf (CB / B-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.77 vs 1.04
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 45%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00
○ Previous match record: 17 matches, 6 wins, 1 draw, 10 losses (United has the advantage)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Over (59%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 41%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 0-1 (Manchester United win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I expect a high-scoring draw. Brighton has been strong against Manchester United recently. United's tendency to leave significant spaces when they press is a clear weakness. Therefore, Brighton will have many opportunities to attack by finding space. Overall, while Brighton’s defensive discipline may be somewhat lacking, they can still be trusted to unleash attacking power.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Draw (Not recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Manchester United win (Not recommended)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Over (Recommended)

● Palace (15th in England 1st division / W3LDL)
In the last match, Palace suffered a defeat against the home strength of Brentford. However, they did show stronger shooting creation, with players like Édouard and Mateta demonstrating explosive capabilities. They utilize a high pressing line to initiate attacks from a close distance.
In particular, controlling the opponent's build-up play will be crucial in managing West Ham’s changed attacking setup. Waghorn (MF) is adept at progressing the ball in counter-attack situations and has garnered interest from big clubs.

- Missing players: Franck (RW / C-grade)

● West Ham (16th in England 1st division / WLWLL)
Last match, they also played in a 4-3-3 and lost 1-2. They recorded many shots, but only one penalty goal out of 14 attempts hit the target.
Most of West Ham's good chances came from headers. The style of play preferred by their coach, Lopetegui, didn’t yield favorable chances. Players like Bowen and Antonio thrive in counter-attacks, making the combination unsuitable for sustained attacks. If Paquetá gets caught under pressure, it raises questions about who will progress the ball in midfield.

- Missing players: Álvarez (DM / A-grade), Zouma (CB / A-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.61 vs 1.05
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 80%
○ Combined expected goals: 4.00
○ Previous match record: 25 matches, 8 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses (Even)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Over (68%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 80%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 4-1 (Palace win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I see Palace as the side with the upper hand. They can effectively pressure from a high position, forcing West Ham's slow build-up into counter-attacks. The current player combinations do not suit West Ham’s style of play. In the last match, West Ham had more strength in direct play, rather than in slow build-up.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Palace win (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Draw (Not recommended)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Over (Recommended)

● Fulham (13th in England 1st division / WWLWL)
Overall, Fulham needs to keep possession for extended periods. However, this is only if the opponent does not actively press. They lack players capable of transitioning the ball in midfield, leading to defensive issues under pressure.
Leicester capitalized on their energy during the second half. Last season, Fulham struggled defensively when tired, with a second-half concession rate of 1.03 goals per game. This means they conceded more goals in the second half than matches played.

- Missing players: None

● Leicester (10th in England 1st division / WLWDL)
Leicester's counter-attacking strategy, which led them to victory, returned against Tottenham. Even in the draw against Tottenham, Vardy scored, showing a promising flow in counter-attacking play.
In the first half, they maintained a defensive stance. This prevented the promoted team from pushing forward aggressively and wearing themselves out. Coach Cooper consistently aims for counter-attacks. In the second half, they increased pressure as the opponent tired. They are likely to implement a similar strategy in this match.

- Missing players: Cody (CB / A-grade), Stolarz (GK / C-grade), Dakar (FW / B-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.07 vs 1.33
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 40%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00
○ Previous match record: 7 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses (Even)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Over (57%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 80%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 0-2 (Leicester win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I also expect a draw in this match. Fulham is likely to dominate the first half, but Leicester may exploit their fresh legs to push the lines up, causing Fulham to be vulnerable. Their previous season saw them struggle in one-on-one situations under pressure, and they also had a high concession rate in the second half, which could be a potential issue.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Draw (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Leicester win (Not recommended)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Over (Recommended)

● Manchester City (1st in England 1st division / WLWLD)
In their last match, they recorded a 2-0 victory over Chelsea. Despite the absence of Rodri, the combination of Kovacic, Bernardo Silva, and Rico displayed a high-level performance against Chelsea.
Pep is adept at targeting teams that are influenced by him. Furthermore, he excels in breaking lines under pressure. While Manchester City generally face teams that tend to play a low block, Ipswich managed to maintain a reasonably attacking approach against Liverpool.
In such scenarios, players like Doku can leverage their agility and creativity. If this support is provided, the volume of passes directed towards Haaland could increase significantly.

- Missing players: Grealish (LW / B-grade), Bove (FW / B-grade), Rodri (DM / A-grade), Sabini (LW / Doubtful)

● Ipswich (18th in England 1st division / WLWLW)
Ipswich suffered a 0-2 defeat, unable to challenge Liverpool's capabilities. However, their performance displayed a promising attacking flow that they had exhibited in the Championship.
In the early stages, they placed six players forward, raising the intensity of their pressing. This forced Liverpool into awkward long-ball situations, achieving some success in pressing. However, relinquishing possession to Liverpool was inevitable, leading to rapid fatigue.
Ultimately, in the second half, Liverpool utilized the width of the field, and Ipswich struggled to handle their transitions. Pep's preference for tight spaces and passing play doesn't deter him from using width when necessary.

- Missing players: Humphries (LB / B-grade), Hurst (FW / B-grade), Clarke (RB / A-grade), Donacien (RB / C-grade), Broadhead (LW / A-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.86 vs 1.39
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 60%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 3-2 (Manchester City win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I predict a two-goal victory for Manchester City, with a high-scoring match. City tends to show their superior strength against aggressive teams. Ipswich may maintain their attacking flow in the first half, opting for long balls. However, this strategy may collapse due to fatigue in the second half.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Manchester City win (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Manchester City win (Recommended)
[Over/Under / 3.5] Over (Recommended)

● Southampton (14th in England 1st division / LDLDL)
The result of the last match was quite disappointing. They held a numerical superiority before the 30-minute mark and had a possession rate of 78%, yet ended up losing 0-1. Southampton's strategy revolves around utilizing possession to create scoring opportunities, but their failure to convert this against Nottingham highlighted their vulnerabilities when countered.

- Missing players: Sulaimana (LW / B-grade), Lallana (AM / B-grade), Bazunu (GK / A-grade)

● Nottingham (11th in England 1st division / LLLLD)
Their central midfielders generally exhibit good stamina and defensive capabilities. They can be classified as a counter-attacking team that utilizes White’s skills on the wing. While they may struggle to build from the back, they have thrived against Southampton by doubling their wins in the league last season and contributing to Southampton's relegation.

- Missing players: Danilo (DM / A-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 0.82 vs 1.34
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 60%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00
○ Previous match record: 6 matches, 2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses (Nottingham superior)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Over (67%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 50%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 2-0 (Southampton win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I am expecting a low-scoring victory for Nottingham. Even in a match where they held high possession, Southampton struggled to show significant scoring ability. It's worth noting that against a team like Nottingham, who is strong in counter-attacks, leaving behind spaces can be problematic. Nottingham's midfield boasts strong defensive skills, making it hard for Southampton to build their play effectively.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Nottingham win (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Nottingham win (Recommended)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Under (Recommended)

● Tottenham (12th in England 1st division / WWLWL)
In the first half, Madison showcased excellent ball distribution, leading to strong attacks. However, in the second half, their stamina faded, revealing significant defensive weaknesses. Ultimately, they have not effectively resolved the issues from last season, and their vulnerability in set-pieces continues to plague the team. Tottenham may particularly struggle against Everton, facing issues with long balls, pressure, and set-pieces.

- Missing players: Forster (GK / C-grade)

➁ Everton (20th in England 1st division / LLDWL)
Overall, they prefer a style of play characterized by direct soccer. They often play in a compact 4-4-2 formation and primarily seek to score from headers in open play. However, Everton's actual strength lies in set-pieces. Last season, they scored three goals against Tottenham, all from set-pieces. The combination of pressing, counter-attacks, and set-pieces poses a significant variable for Tottenham.

- Missing players: Young (DF / B-grade), Garner (DF / B-grade), Branthwaite (DF / A-grade), Patterson (DF / A-grade), Coleman (RB / B-grade), Chermiti (FW / C-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.51 vs 1.44
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 60%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00
○ Previous match record: 36 matches, 14 wins, 15 draws, 7 losses (Tottenham superior)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Under (53%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 53%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 2-0 (Tottenham win)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
I believe a draw would not be surprising. Tottenham appeared to repeat the issues of last season, particularly in set-piece defense, which was evident in pre-season matches. Everton is renowned for their intricate set-piece strategies, and they are also resilient under pressure. The poor second-half performance of Tottenham in the first round emphasizes this point.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Draw (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Everton win (Not recommended)
[Over/Under / 3.5] Under (Recommended)

● Aston Villa (7th in England 1st division / WLWLW)
Aston Villa could be brimming with confidence. They recorded a double victory against Arsenal last season, and Emery has historically fared strongly against Guardiola. This tendency is complemented by the lack of substantial change in Arsenal's tactical approach. Their strategy of solidifying the middle and exploiting the opponent's left side has proven effective.

- Missing players: Kamara (CM / A-grade), Olsen (GK / Doubtful), Mings (DF / A-grade)

● Arsenal (2nd in England 1st division / WLWWL)
Arsenal's issue lies with their left defense. Zinchenko is still not defensively stable, so when the opponent launches a counter-attack, the pressure on center-backs is significantly increased. This vulnerability aligns with Aston Villa's primary pattern of exploiting the flanks, and in their last encounter, Arsenal struggled offensively against the opponent’s deep defensive play.

- Missing players: Vieira (AM / C-grade), Tierney (DF / B-grade), Tomiyasu (DF / A-grade)

➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.86 vs 1.16
○ Both teams to score (BTTS) probability: 60%
○ Combined expected goals: 3.00
○ Previous match record: 30 matches, 8 wins, 4 draws, 18 losses (Arsenal superior)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Under (53%)
○ Matches where both teams scored in the past (BTTS): 53%

➌ Major foreign predictions
[Predictz] 2-2 (Draw)

➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Bets
Aston Villa may hold an upper hand here. This stems from their historical strengths against Arsenal. Their approach of solidifying the center and attacking the flanks has been quite successful. Arsenal’s left defender, Zinchenko, has notable defensive issues, which could also magnify the pressure on center-backs.

➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Aston Villa win (Recommended)
[Handicap / +1.0] Aston Villa win (Recommended)
[Over/Under / 3.5] Under (Not recommended)