August 25 Eredivisie Hercules Willem Overseas Football Analysis Sports Analysis
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● Heracles (Dutch 1st division 13th / DWWL)
Heracles' current momentum does not guarantee strength in a pressing situation while maintaining high possession. In particular, the finesse and efficiency of Willem's counterattacks, along with their ultra-defensive five-man backline, are expected to be quite burdensome.
It's also true that Heracles has often struggled against Willem. In the last Eredivisie, they drew 1-1, making it difficult to say they maintained an overwhelming advantage against Willem. Considering that their previous league opponents were strong teams like PSV and Sparta, and taking into account that they had a good defensive flow against Sparta, I wouldn't say they are in a distinctly favorable situation.
- Absentees: Lauritsen (RW / Grade A), Honkamp (FW / Grade B), Kulenovic (FW / Grade C), Bultman (CB / Grade B), Zamburek (MF / Grade B)
● Willem (Dutch 1st division 6th / WWWD)
In the first round, they had an unfortunate draw against Feyenoord, but Willem's strength seems to be at a surprisingly high level. They achieved a 2-0 victory against Go Ahead.
Willem tends to operate quite defensively. They seem to be giving up control in the central area by deploying a five-man defense. Consequently, they have to allow a significant reduction in shooting opportunities, but they are managing to keep the number of valid shots down. In the second round against Go Ahead, they allowed only 2 valid shots. They have a habit of being effective on offense, carefully capitalizing on opponents' weaknesses.
- Absentee: Stunt (CB / Grade A)
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected Goals (xG): 1.44 goals vs 1.33 goals
○ Both teams' scoring probability (BTTS): 60%
○ Combined expected goals for both teams: 3.00 goals
○ Previous head-to-head record: 20 matches, 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses (Heracles advantage)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Over (75%)
○ Previous record of both teams scoring (BTTS): 60%
➌ Major Foreign Predictions
[Predictz] 0-1 (Willem win)
➍ Match Analysis & Recommended Betting
I expect Willem to win in a low-scoring scenario. Overall, while Willem appears to be giving up significant control, they still manage not to concede effective shots while maintaining an efficient attack to capitalize on opportunities. Overall, Heracles did not display a dominant trend against Willem.
➎ Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Willem Win (Recommended o)
[Handicap / -1.0] Willem Win (Recommended o)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Under (Recommended o)