August 21st Emperor's Cup Soccer: Kofu vs. Kashima Asian Football Analysis Sports Analysis
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● Gofu (Japan 2nd Division 14th / Win-Draw-Win-Win-Loss)
Gofu recorded a heavy defeat of 0-3 against Shimizu. They had generally matched up well against Shimizu, which typically applies strong pressure, but the sending-off of a player played a significant role in the outcome.
Overall, Gofu had shown a good trend after a rest period in the league. The depth of the squad was not a major issue, which suggests that Gofu's remaining players had recovered enough to overcome the recent poor performance.
However, they did not manage to overcome the drop in pace during the second half overall. As a result, there were several occasions where they suffered from opponents' dribbles or build-up plays taking advantage of gaps in their defense.
- Absentees: Kawata (GK / Grade A)
● Kashima (Japan 1st Division 3rd / Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Draw)
Kashima recorded a draw with Urawa. Up until the previous game, they had experienced five consecutive draws, so the draw itself was not particularly surprising.
Kashima tends to maximize build-up play from the back. Thus, they sometimes show weaknesses when opponents apply strong pressure or counter-attack. In the last match, the defenders managed to cover quite well against Urawa's second-half pressing.
Of course, they do not have a tendency to keep their defensive line extremely high. Therefore, even in situations where Kashima is attacking, they rarely leave critical space behind.
- Absentees: Kajikawa (GK / Grade A), Chabridge (WF / Grade A)
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected Goals (xG): 1.59 goals vs 1.14 goals
○ Both Teams To Score (BTTS) probability: 55%
○ Combined Expected Goals for both teams: 3.00 goals
○ Previous head-to-head record: 13 matches, 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses (Kashima favored)
○ Over/Under from previous encounters: Under (62%)
○ Instances where both teams scored in past records (BTTS): 15%
➍ Match Outlook & Recommended Bets
I expect a high-scoring victory for Kashima. There's a possibility that Gofu's aggressive press and counter-attacks could trouble Kashima. However, Gofu also tends to create gaps in the second half and struggles against approaches using dribbles. Kashima is not characterized by drastically leaving open spaces behind.
➎ Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Kashima Win (Recommendation: Yes)
[Handicap / +1.0] Draw (Recommendation: No)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Over (Recommendation: Yes)