Análisis deportivo de la Ligue 1 entre Auxerre y Niza el 18 de agosto
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● Auxerre (1st in France's 2nd division / WLDWW)
Overall, they have often struggled to survive even a season after promotion, getting relegated again. They showed their ability to control games as they wanted in the 2nd division, but Auxerre had a hard time generating chances in the 22/23 season, and their conversion rate for the few chances they did get was very low. They managed to collect points at home against lower-ranked teams, but Nice is closer to higher-ranked strength.
- Absentees: None
● Nice (5th in France's 1st division / LDDWL)
The coach has changed. However, Nice's strengths, namely defense and pressing, are likely to remain intact. They brought in a coach from Lens, who has a similar style, suggesting that Nice's defensive ability should be similar to last season. The problem lies in the attack. They have many players specialized for counter-attacks, making it more difficult against lower-tier teams that sit back. Although they didn't lose to the three teams that were relegated last season away from home, they also never scored more than two goals.
- Absentees: Moffi (FW / Grade A)
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected Goals (xG): 1.75 goals vs 1.31 goals
○ Scoring potential for both sides (BTTS): 70%
○ Total expected goals for both teams: 3.00 goals
○ Previous head-to-head record: 9 matches, 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses (Auxerre advantage)
○ Previous encounters’ under/over: Under (89%)
○ Instances where both teams scored in previous matchups (BTTS): 33%
➌ Major Foreign Predictions
[Predictz] 1-1 (Draw)
➍ Match Outlook & Recommended Bet
This is a match to expect an under (2.5) and a victory for Nice. Ultimately, while Nice could stabilize defensively, they have too many players strong in counter-attack situations. If Auxerre lowers their line and increases their guard, it could make things more difficult. Of course, Auxerre's overall competitiveness in the 1st division has generally not been very good.
➎ Three-line Summary
[General Win/Draw/Loss] Nice Win (Recommended o)
[Handicap / +1.0] Draw (Recommended x)
[Under/Over / 2.5] Under (Recommended o)