June 9 Friendly: USA vs. Colombia International Football Analysis Sports Analysis
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❶ Key Analysis
⦁ USA (FIFA Ranking 11th / LWLWW)
This team is enthusiastic with high-energy young players. However, it’s true that their youthful vigor has made it difficult to effectively exploit Colombia’s defensive characteristics. Since 2010, the USA has never beaten Colombia. Overall, they struggle in scoring in situations where mobility is compromised, as seen in matches where they lost 1-2 to Trinidad and Tobago and 0-1 to Slovenia, who also have a strong defense.
- Missing players: Dest (DF / B level), Yedlin (MF / A level), Long (MF / B level), Miazga (MF / B level), Zimmerman (MF / A level), Roldan (MF / B level), Morris (FW / B level), Ferreira (FW / A level) ➤ Total squad strength -15%
● Colombia (FIFA Ranking 12th / WWWWW)
The only team in the South American qualifiers to remain undefeated. They defeated Brazil 2-1 and even won a friendly match against Spain 1-0. The squad has several key players with experience in Europe’s top 5 leagues, particularly in defense. However, the generation change in the attack, which still revolves around James Rodriguez, leaves something to be desired. Despite Diaz’s presence, evaluations of him from his club Liverpool fans are mixed, aside from his dribbling abilities.
- Missing players: Fabra (DF / B level), Medina (DF / B level), Cuadrado (RW / A level), Barrios (MF / B level), Martinez (FW / C level) ➤ Total squad strength -14%
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected Goals (xG): 2.12 vs 1.29
○ Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Probability: 40%
○ Total Expected Goals: 3.00
○ Head-to-Head Record: 2 games, 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (Colombia advantage)
○ Under/Over in Head-to-Head Matches: Equal (50%)
○ Both Teams Scoring in Head-to-Head Matches (BTTS): 50%
➍ Game Flow & Recommended Bets
An under (2.5) game is expected, and there is a possibility of a draw. The USA tends to struggle against teams that defend deeply, and this was no exception against Colombia. On the other hand, although Colombia's defense quality is high, their attack is hampered by a slow generation change.
➎ 3-Line Summary
[Win/Draw/Lose] Draw (Recommended)
[Handicap / -1.0] Colombia Win (Not Recommended)
[Under/Over / 2.5] Under (Recommended)