Match Analysis of Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors: K League 1 on July 7, 2023, and Asian Football Outlook
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Daejeon (11th in K League 1, South Korea / DLDLL)
Daejeon currently has issues with their roster composition. Especially with many offensive players leaving, they have earned the ignominious label of being a spear that can't pierce anything. New players like Park Jung-in and Chun Sung-hoon are in such an urgent situation that they are immediately starting in matches. Even in situations where the three-back system passes the ball to the two midfielders in a 3-4-3 formation, they often appear frustrated. In the 2-1 win against Gwangju, they looked better after switching to a four-back, but coach Hwang Sun-hong insists on sticking with a three-back.
- Absentees: Gotech (FW / A-grade), Kim Jun-beom (CM / B-grade), Shin Sang-eun (RW / B-grade), Kim Seung-dae (FW / A-grade), Kim Hyun-woo (CB / A-grade), Lee Jun-kyu (MF / A-grade), Kim In-kyun (FW / doubtful), Park Jin-seong (DF / B-grade), Lee Chang-geun (GK / A-grade), Masa (AM / A-grade)
Jeonbuk (12th in K League 1, South Korea / DLWLD)
Jeonbuk's situation is dire. Their attempts to escape from the bottom by defending failed miserably, losing 1-5 to Seoul. There are even reports of Jeonbuk players being spotted at clubs afterward, suggesting a significant drop in morale. A particular problem for Jeonbuk is the poor performance of the center-backs filling in after Hong Jung-ho's long-term injury. Head coach Kim Doo-hyun's 4-4-2 formation is unstable both offensively and defensively.
- Absentees: Kwon Chang-hoon (MF / B-grade), Vinicius (FW / A-grade), Park Jin-seop (MF / A-grade), Kim Jin-su (DF / A-grade)
Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.36 goals vs 1.33 goals
○ Both teams to score (BTTS): 35%
○ Combined expected goals: 2.15 goals
○ Past head-to-head results: 1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses (Jeonbuk advantage)
○ Over/Under in past matchups: Over (67%)
○ Both teams scored in past matchups (BTTS): 100%
Major Foreign Predictions
[Predcitz] 0-0 (Draw)
Match Outlook & Recommended Betting
As the foreign prediction suggests, an under (2.5) draw can be expected. Jeonbuk will be serious about getting out of the bottom and will likely come out conservatively in a 4-4-2 formation. However, their defensive issues remain unresolved, and Daejeon’s three-back system and lack of depth in their offensive lineup are also concerns.
Summary in 3 Lines
1. [General 1X2] Draw (Recommended)
2. [Handicap / +1.0] Daejeon Win (Not recommended)
3. [Over/Under / 2.5] Under (Recommended)