June 8 Friendly Match: Peru vs. Paraguay Overseas Soccer Analysis, Sports Analysis
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❶ Core Analysis
⦁ Peru (FIFA Ranking 32 / LLDWW)
Peru is at the bottom of the South American qualifiers, having even lost to Bolivia. Although the team is not known for high scoring, the aging lineup is a serious issue. The key forward is 40-year-old Guerrero, and the midfield still includes the 34-year-old 'unemployed' Cueva. Despite the home advantage of high altitude, the energy level of the roster is critically low.
- Absentees: Trauco (DF / Grade A), Advíncula (DF / Grade B), Yotún (MF / Grade A), Aquino (MF / Grade B), González (MF / Grade B), Ruidíaz (FW / Grade A) ➤ Total squad reduction: -15%
● Paraguay (FIFA Ranking 56 / LLWDL)
Paraguay is currently in 7th place and not far from the automatic World Cup qualification spot. However, their current form is not impressive. Although the team's style is generally considered to be defensively solid, EPL players like Almirón and Enciso underperform for their national team. Paraguay did not lose to Chile, Bolivia, or Peru, who are 8th, 9th, and 10th respectively, but their only win was a 1-0 home victory against Bolivia.
- Absentees: Silva (GK / Grade A), Piris (DF / Grade B), Valdés (DF / Grade B), Ortiz (MF / Grade A), Sanabria (FW / Grade A), Cardozo (FW / Grade A) ➤ Total squad reduction: -14%
➋ Betting Data
○ Expected goals (xG): 1.08 goals vs 1.06 goals
○ Both Teams to Score (BTTS) probability: 30%
○ Combined expected goals: 2.00 goals
○ Head-to-head record: 14 games, 9 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses (Peru leads)
○ Under/Over in previous matches: Under (64%)
○ Both Teams to Score (BTTS) in previous matches: 36%
➍ Match Outlook & Recommended Betting
An Under (2.5) outcome is expected, and a narrow win for Paraguay or a draw is anticipated. Both teams have issues with attacking power due to aging rosters or overall squad weakness. While Paraguay has the slightly better squad with Enciso and Almirón, they have not shown clear dominance even against weaker teams in the South American qualifiers.
➎ 3-Line Summary
[Win/Draw/Lose] Draw (Recommend)
[Handicap / -1.0] Paraguay win (Do not recommend)
[Over/Under / 2.5] Under (Recommend)